Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

12.07 – 0

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

28 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.1 ±13.9

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 9.15Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 3.29Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10266Hopkins Galvanized Goats

Season APEX 50Event APEX -0.37Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.1 ±13.9

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 3.92Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 15.06Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -24.42Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10245, 1099, 10266

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10245, 1099, 10266

Auto

17.0 100%

Teleop

-3.4 0%

Endgame

-3.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5856, 5746, 11409

/ 100 compat

Projected

-5.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5856, 5746, 11409

Auto

7.4 0%

Teleop

-5.4 100%

Endgame

-6.8 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score12.1pts

Blue projected score-5.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.1
Score range: -22–34
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 49 vs event baseline 124.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.1Season APEX147.1

17Auto7.4

-3.4Teleop-5.4

-3.2Endgame-6.8

134Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	11
teleop	0	10
endgame	8	0
foul	10	0
total	28	21

Result

Final score

28 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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