Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.44 – 49.94

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.7 ±11.2

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -5.52Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 28.98Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 238.98Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.7 ±12.7

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 42.11Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX -16.46Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 24.29Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11464, 1071, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11464, 1071, 6328

Auto

34.0 13%

Teleop

164.9 64%

Endgame

57.1 22%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4572, 7907, 10592

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4572, 7907, 10592

Auto

9.4 21%

Teleop

35.0 78%

Endgame

0.7 2%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score262.4pts

Blue projected score49.9pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 212.5
Score range: 29–283
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 119.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.7Season APEX161.7

34Auto9.4

164.9Teleop35

57.1Endgame0.7

89Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	9
teleop	168	32
endgame	64	16
foul	5	0
total	286	57

Result

Final score

286 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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