Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.3 – 175.85

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.4 ±11.6

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 9.56Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 14.74Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.2 ±11.7

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -10.7Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 48.11Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 138.44Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10133, 6933, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10133, 6933, 558

Auto

18.3 30%

Teleop

21.6 35%

Endgame

21.1 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9193, 3654, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9193, 3654, 228

Auto

15.6 9%

Teleop

82.7 48%

Endgame

74.5 43%

Strengths

· 228 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.3pts

Blue projected score175.9pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.5
Score range: 37–198
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 120.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.4Season APEX238.2

18.3Auto15.6

21.6Teleop82.7

21.1Endgame74.5

45Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	18
teleop	30	56
endgame	28	42
foul	0	10
total	79	126

Result

Final score

79 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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