Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 120.95

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 54 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215 ±12.8

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -48.11Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 45.17Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10266Hopkins Galvanized Goats

Season APEX 50Event APEX -24.49Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.1 ±13.3

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 75.16Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX 33.53Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 12.26Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11409, 173, 10266

/ 100 compat

Projected

-27.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11409, 173, 10266

Auto

10.2 0%

Teleop

-15.1 58%

Endgame

-21.0 81%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7694, 716, 2064

/ 100 compat

Projected

121 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7694, 716, 2064

Auto

16.1 14%

Teleop

99.8 85%

Endgame

1.4 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-27.4pts

Blue projected score121pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.9
Score range: -22–143
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 122.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215Season APEX177.1

10.2Auto16.1

-15.1Teleop99.8

-21Endgame1.4

68Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	24
teleop	35	55
endgame	1	11
foul	15	0
total	77	90

Result

Final score

77 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 54 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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