Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.38 – 0

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.3 ±9.4

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 103.1Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 45.95Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 9.33Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.5 ±13.9

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -6.56Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 13.2Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -9.81Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 8889, 7153

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 8889, 7153

Auto

32.8 21%

Teleop

97.9 62%

Endgame

26.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1099, 5856, 11464

/ 100 compat

Projected

-3.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1099, 5856, 11464

Auto

1.0 0%

Teleop

-5.8 100%

Endgame

-0.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.4pts

Blue projected score-3.2pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.4
Score range: -23–181
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 125.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.3Season APEX145.5

32.8Auto1

97.9Teleop-5.8

26.7Endgame-0.7

60Consistency164

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	4
teleop	20	7
endgame	40	4
foul	0	0
total	100	15

Result

Final score

100 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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