Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.71 – 131.36

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420 ±11.2

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -15.76Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 220.23Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 26.24Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.4 ±11.7

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 75.19Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 21.52Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 34.65Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9193, 6328, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9193, 6328, 558

Auto

45.9 20%

Teleop

144.7 63%

Endgame

37.8 17%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8085, 2785, 1071

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8085, 2785, 1071

Auto

16.6 13%

Teleop

66.8 52%

Endgame

45.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score230.7pts

Blue projected score131.4pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.4
Score range: 109–253
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 122.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420Season APEX294.4

45.9Auto16.6

144.7Teleop66.8

37.8Endgame45.3

48Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	33
teleop	109	36
endgame	122	25
foul	0	0
total	276	94

Result

Final score

276 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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