Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.25 – 22.36

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.7 ±11.7

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 85.7Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 15.9Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 0.65Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.4 ±12.2

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 1.58Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 45.84Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX -25.06Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 230, 999, 2712

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 230, 999, 2712

Auto

24.2 25%

Teleop

60.2 61%

Endgame

13.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5746, 3654, 7907

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5746, 3654, 7907

Auto

1.5 7%

Teleop

6.6 29%

Endgame

14.5 64%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.3pts

Blue projected score22.4pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.9
Score range: 0–124
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 120.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.7Season APEX168.4

24.2Auto1.5

60.2Teleop6.6

13.8Endgame14.5

125Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	13
teleop	48	34
endgame	30	15
foul	0	0
total	111	62

Result

Final score

111 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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