Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.27 – 0

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

425 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 117.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.4 ±9.8

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 93.76Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 168.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX -32.79Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.1 ±12.8

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 9.68Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX 15.31Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -39.86Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 228, 6328, 7153

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 228, 6328, 7153

Auto

37.6 17%

Teleop

149.1 67%

Endgame

37.2 17%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 558, 716, 11409

/ 100 compat

Projected

-14.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 558, 716, 11409

Auto

1.4 0%

Teleop

-5.6 35%

Endgame

-12.0 74%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score229.3pts

Blue projected score-14.9pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 229.3
Score range: -20–249
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 464 vs event baseline 113.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.4Season APEX198.1

37.6Auto1.4

149.1Teleop-5.6

37.2Endgame-12

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	15
teleop	270	19
endgame	83	5
foul	0	0
total	425	39

Result

Final score

425 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 117.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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