Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.09 – 78

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.6 ±12.4

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -1.87Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10266Hopkins Galvanized Goats

Season APEX 50Event APEX -4.5Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 226.46Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.1 ±12.2

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 19.74Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 43.42Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 14.84Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9193, 10266, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9193, 10266, 176

Auto

32.9 16%

Teleop

139.0 67%

Endgame

34.9 17%

Strengths

· 176 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10592, 7127, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

78 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10592, 7127, 10133

Auto

17.5 22%

Teleop

43.0 54%

Endgame

18.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score220.1pts

Blue projected score78pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142.1
Score range: 58–240
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 113.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.6Season APEX237.1

32.9Auto17.5

139Teleop43

34.9Endgame18.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	13
teleop	63	41
endgame	19	48
foul	0	0
total	137	102

Result

Final score

137 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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