Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.49 – 0

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.1 ±10.8

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 15.42Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 14.11Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 139.96Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.9 ±12.2

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX -28.31Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 10.77Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -7.9Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10245, 999, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10245, 999, 4909

Auto

26.5 16%

Teleop

103.1 63%

Endgame

34.4 21%

Strengths

· 4909 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7907, 8889, 11464

/ 100 compat

Projected

-25.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7907, 8889, 11464

Auto

-0.5 2%

Teleop

-20.1 79%

Endgame

-5.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169.5pts

Blue projected score-25.4pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.5
Score range: -22–191
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 120.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.1Season APEX190.9

26.5Auto-0.5

103.1Teleop-20.1

34.4Endgame-5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	7
teleop	63	21
endgame	14	5
foul	0	0
total	106	33

Result

Final score

106 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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