Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.25 – 90.83

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 27

Prediction missed · off by 85.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.7 ±12.2

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 64.89Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 44.86Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX -27.5Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.4 ±13.9

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 56.71Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 47.53Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX -13.41Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 230, 7694, 6933

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 230, 7694, 6933

Auto

24.3 29%

Teleop

33.4 40%

Endgame

25.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2785, 5856, 2712

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2785, 5856, 2712

Auto

18.1 21%

Teleop

62.3 71%

Endgame

7.7 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.3pts

Blue projected score90.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.6
Score range: 60–113
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 121.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.7Season APEX156.4

24.3Auto18.1

33.4Teleop62.3

25.5Endgame7.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	14
teleop	100	3
endgame	44	10
foul	0	0
total	190	27

Result

Final score

190 – 27

Prediction missed · off by 85.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.