Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.03 – 154.31

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

4 – 315

Prediction missed · off by 169.9 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.9 ±12.2

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX 5.25Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 28.11Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 149.67Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.9 ±10.5

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX -3.25Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 149.67Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 7.89Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7907, 11409, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

183 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7907, 11409, 228

Auto

27.2 15%

Teleop

113.7 65%

Endgame

35.3 20%

Strengths

· 228 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1071, 176, 4572

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1071, 176, 4572

Auto

23.2 16%

Teleop

76.3 51%

Endgame

49.1 33%

Strengths

· 176 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183pts

Blue projected score154.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.7
Score range: 132–205
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 119.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.9Season APEX472.9

27.2Auto23.2

113.7Teleop76.3

35.3Endgame49.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	47
teleop	2	219
endgame	1	29
foul	0	20
total	4	315

Result

Final score

4 – 315

Prediction missed · off by 169.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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