Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

515.34 – 260.72

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

443 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 54.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.1 ±9.9

7907Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 24Event APEX -1.02Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 289.03Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 227.33Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.9 ±10

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 35.05Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 125.23Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 100.44Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7907, 6328, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

515.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7907, 6328, 176

Auto

85.6 17%

Teleop

319.2 63%

Endgame

105.9 21%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4572, 4909, 7127

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4572, 4909, 7127

Auto

41.6 17%

Teleop

148.8 61%

Endgame

54.5 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score515.3pts

Blue projected score260.7pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 254.6
Score range: 234–542
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 740 vs event baseline 147.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603.1Season APEX374.9

85.6Auto41.6

319.2Teleop148.8

105.9Endgame54.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	65
teleop	243	126
endgame	46	101
foul	65	5
total	443	297

Result

Final score

443 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 54.3 pts

Match videos

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