Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.78 – 207.66

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 287

Prediction missed · off by 99.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.9 ±10.4

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 38.26Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 50.45Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 84.07Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.9 ±11.7

5142RoboDominators

Season APEX 80Event APEX 49.16Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 86.1Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 72.4Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2170, 178, 155

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2170, 178, 155

Auto

41.7 25%

Teleop

94.7 56%

Endgame

32.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5142, 3146, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5142, 3146, 8889

Auto

33.5 17%

Teleop

112.3 57%

Endgame

52.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.8pts

Blue projected score207.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.9
Score range: 142–239
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 173.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.9Season APEX309.9

41.7Auto33.5

94.7Teleop112.3

32.5Endgame52.2

25Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	25
teleop	181	188
endgame	69	74
foul	0	0
total	292	287

Result

Final score

292 – 287

Prediction missed · off by 99.3 pts

Match videos

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