Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.5 – 208.31

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 2.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.7 ±11.7

181Birds Of Prey

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 39.21Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 59.8Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 57.49Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.9 ±11.7

5142RoboDominators

Season APEX 80Event APEX 49.83Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 86.66Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 71.82Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 181, 228, 175

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 181, 228, 175

Auto

23.3 15%

Teleop

86.9 57%

Endgame

42.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5142, 3146, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5142, 3146, 8889

Auto

32.9 17%

Teleop

112.2 57%

Endgame

51.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.5pts

Blue projected score208.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.8
Score range: 126–239
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 171.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.7Season APEX309.9

23.3Auto32.9

86.9Teleop112.2

42.3Endgame51.7

28Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	37
teleop	100	111
endgame	37	56
foul	0	0
total	156	204

Result

Final score

156 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 2.4 pts

Match videos

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