Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.36 – 148.4

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.8 ±12.2

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 57.51Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 52.38Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 54.47Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.6 ±12.1

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 50.87Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 54.5Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 43.03Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 558, 6346, 3461

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 558, 6346, 3461

Auto

38.9 24%

Teleop

75.5 47%

Endgame

47.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 429, 126, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 429, 126, 10133

Auto

35.2 24%

Teleop

63.4 44%

Endgame

45.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.4pts

Blue projected score148.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16
Score range: 117–195
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 171.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.8Season APEX226.6

38.9Auto35.2

75.5Teleop63.4

47.8Endgame45.7

64Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	40
teleop	85	81
endgame	51	42
foul	15	0
total	189	163

Result

Final score

189 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Match videos

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