Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.88 – 204.76

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.7 ±10.4

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 21.59Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 132.97Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 138.32Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.9 ±11.7

5142RoboDominators

Season APEX 80Event APEX 48.8Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 85.34Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 70.62Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9710, 1699, 236

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9710, 1699, 236

Auto

48.7 17%

Teleop

167.7 57%

Endgame

75.5 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5142, 3146, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5142, 3146, 8889

Auto

31.8 16%

Teleop

111.5 58%

Endgame

50.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score292.9pts

Blue projected score204.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.1
Score range: 174–324
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 488 vs event baseline 170.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.7Season APEX309.9

48.7Auto31.8

167.7Teleop111.5

75.5Endgame50.6

0Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	37
teleop	142	115
endgame	53	56
foul	45	15
total	265	223

Result

Final score

265 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts

Match videos

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