Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

152.58 – 153.11

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.6 ±12.1

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 52.31Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 56.86Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 43.41Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.9 ±10.4

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 30.87Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 44.15Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 78.09Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 429, 126, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 429, 126, 10133

Auto

32.8 22%

Teleop

71.1 48%

Endgame

43.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2170, 178, 155

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2170, 178, 155

Auto

41.2 28%

Teleop

84.0 57%

Endgame

23.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.6pts

Blue projected score153.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.5
Score range: 122–184
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 169.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.6Season APEX287.9

32.8Auto41.2

71.1Teleop84

43.2Endgame23.3

7Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	31
teleop	41	142
endgame	55	43
foul	0	0
total	139	216

Result

Final score

139 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 pts

Match videos

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