Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

409.82 – 162.16

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

504 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.1 ±9.3

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 38.24Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 188.94Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 182.64Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.8 ±12.2

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 58.03Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 50.99Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 53.14Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1991, 571, 2067

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1991, 571, 2067

Auto

84.5 20%

Teleop

232.1 56%

Endgame

95.9 23%

Strengths

· 571 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 558, 6346, 3461

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 558, 6346, 3461

Auto

38.5 24%

Teleop

77.3 49%

Endgame

43.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score409.8pts

Blue projected score162.2pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 247.7
Score range: 132–440
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 678 vs event baseline 167.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603.1Season APEX223.8

84.5Auto38.5

232.1Teleop77.3

95.9Endgame43.5

18Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	39
teleop	301	66
endgame	126	69
foul	10	0
total	504	174

Result

Final score

504 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 53 pts

Match videos

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