Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.54 – 80.63

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.2 ±10.4

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 37.58Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 87.34Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 68.62Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227 ±12.2

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 40.2Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 35.44Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 4.99Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1991, 3146, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1991, 3146, 8889

Auto

31.5 17%

Teleop

106.1 57%

Endgame

47.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10133, 11131, 11409

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10133, 11131, 11409

Auto

25.8 33%

Teleop

19.7 25%

Endgame

32.8 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.5pts

Blue projected score80.6pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.9
Score range: 51–224
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 167.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.2Season APEX227

31.5Auto25.8

106.1Teleop19.7

47.2Endgame32.8

41Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	26
teleop	112	68
endgame	69	32
foul	0	0
total	200	126

Result

Final score

200 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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