Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.98 – 93.57

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268 ±12.8

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 47.62Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 70.47Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 41.89Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.5 ±10.4

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 28.76Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 59.12Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 5.69Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11464, 228, 4628

/ 100 compat

Projected

160 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11464, 228, 4628

Auto

16.7 11%

Teleop

86.8 57%

Endgame

48.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2170, 175, 3182

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2170, 175, 3182

Auto

19.0 21%

Teleop

48.2 52%

Endgame

25.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160pts

Blue projected score93.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.4
Score range: 64–190
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 167.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268Season APEX278.5

16.7Auto19

86.8Teleop48.2

48.9Endgame25.1

2Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	28
teleop	33	68
endgame	40	17
foul	0	15
total	96	128

Result

Final score

96 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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