Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.87 – 109.42

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 98.9 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245 ±12.8

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 40.86Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 2.57Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5142RoboDominators

Season APEX 80Event APEX -Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±10.4

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 39.71Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 2.57Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 67.14Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3146, 5856, 5142

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3146, 5856, 5142

Auto

21.4 30%

Teleop

36.0 51%

Endgame

13.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 558, 3182, 1699

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 558, 3182, 1699

Auto

12.0 11%

Teleop

66.0 60%

Endgame

31.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.9pts

Blue projected score109.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.5
Score range: 41–139
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 164.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245Season APEX342.6

13.1Auto12

22.3Teleop66

8Endgame31.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	26
teleop	102	125
endgame	29	58
foul	10	0
total	169	209

Result

Final score

169 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 98.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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