Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.98 – 429.86

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245 ±11.7

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 20.29Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 59.18Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 52.51Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.8 ±10.7

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 193.17Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5142RoboDominators

Season APEX 80Event APEX 50.91Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 185.78Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9710, 558, 6346

/ 100 compat

Projected

132 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9710, 558, 6346

Auto

37.0 27%

Teleop

66.9 49%

Endgame

32.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 571, 5142, 2067

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 571, 5142, 2067

Auto

79.3 19%

Teleop

253.3 59%

Endgame

95.8 22%

Strengths

· 571 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132pts

Blue projected score429.9pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -297.9
Score range: 102–460
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 550 vs event baseline 165.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245Season APEX602.8

37Auto79.3

66.9Teleop253.3

32.8Endgame95.8

38Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	108
teleop	70	203
endgame	30	99
foul	0	0
total	140	410

Result

Final score

140 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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