Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.66 – 58.48

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±11.7

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 70.42Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 118.13Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 4.11Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194 ±12.8

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 15.45Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 38.12Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 4.91Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8889, 177, 3719

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8889, 177, 3719

Auto

26.8 14%

Teleop

107.0 57%

Endgame

54.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10245, 1991, 2785

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10245, 1991, 2785

Auto

17.2 29%

Teleop

29.1 49%

Endgame

12.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score192.7pts

Blue projected score58.5pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 134.2
Score range: 28–223
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 165.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307Season APEX194

26.8Auto17.2

107Teleop29.1

54Endgame12.9

15Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	33
teleop	105	7
endgame	54	5
foul	30	15
total	206	60

Result

Final score

206 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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