Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.78 – 208.61

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

175 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292 ±11.7

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 4.56Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 85.97Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 70.25Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311 ±11

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 9.09Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 56.77Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 142.75Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11409, 3146, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11409, 3146, 228

Auto

31.9 20%

Teleop

104.4 64%

Endgame

25.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3182, 429, 236

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3182, 429, 236

Auto

45.3 22%

Teleop

106.7 52%

Endgame

52.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.8pts

Blue projected score208.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.8
Score range: 131–239
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 165.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292Season APEX311

31.9Auto45.3

104.4Teleop106.7

25.8Endgame52.8

32Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	49
teleop	74	69
endgame	48	66
foul	35	0
total	175	184

Result

Final score

175 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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