Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.69 – 111.2

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237 ±13.3

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 48.03Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 51.63Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 27.03Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.7 ±11.7

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 22.63Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 6.22Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 82.35Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4628, 3461, 5746

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4628, 3461, 5746

Auto

13.3 12%

Teleop

49.1 43%

Endgame

52.1 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9710, 2785, 155

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9710, 2785, 155

Auto

31.1 28%

Teleop

66.7 60%

Endgame

13.7 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.7pts

Blue projected score111.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.5
Score range: 81–157
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 167.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237Season APEX261.7

13.3Auto31.1

49.1Teleop66.7

52.1Endgame13.7

1Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	50
teleop	60	20
endgame	24	8
foul	0	5
total	93	83

Result

Final score

93 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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