Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.44 – 98.76

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.3 ±13.3

5142RoboDominators

Season APEX 80Event APEX 59.25Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 58.63Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3634Bridgeport Spark City

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX -15.44Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.5 ±11.7

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 22.22Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 78.44Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -1.9Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5142, 429, 3634

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5142, 429, 3634

Auto

31.1 31%

Teleop

51.5 52%

Endgame

16.2 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2170, 3146, 3719

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2170, 3146, 3719

Auto

26.9 28%

Teleop

63.3 67%

Endgame

4.3 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.4pts

Blue projected score98.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.7
Score range: 69–132
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 165.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.3Season APEX261.5

31.1Auto26.9

51.5Teleop63.3

16.2Endgame4.3

31Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	32
teleop	29	95
endgame	3	32
foul	25	0
total	83	159

Result

Final score

83 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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