Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.8 – 118.01

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.7 ±10.4

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 42.28Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 28.61Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 62.91Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.7 ±13.3

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 51.37Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 6.64Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 60Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1991, 9710, 175

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1991, 9710, 175

Auto

19.1 14%

Teleop

84.8 63%

Endgame

30.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 126, 2785, 6346

/ 100 compat

Projected

118 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 126, 2785, 6346

Auto

41.9 35%

Teleop

59.0 50%

Endgame

18.1 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.8pts

Blue projected score118pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.8
Score range: 88–164
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 165.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.7Season APEX201.7

19.1Auto41.9

84.8Teleop59

30.4Endgame18.1

0Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	41
teleop	31	57
endgame	33	35
foul	0	0
total	86	133

Result

Final score

86 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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