Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.73 – 47.84

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 5.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.3 ±9.8

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 53.36Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 196.18Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 44.19Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.5 ±13.9

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 5.64Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 40.93Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 1.27Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 178, 571, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 178, 571, 1991

Auto

50.8 17%

Teleop

166.7 57%

Endgame

77.5 26%

Strengths

· 571 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3719, 11464, 9193

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3719, 11464, 9193

Auto

21.0 46%

Teleop

22.2 48%

Endgame

2.7 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score293.7pts

Blue projected score47.8pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 245.9
Score range: 15–327
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 184.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.3Season APEX147.5

50.8Auto21

166.7Teleop22.2

77.5Endgame2.7

1Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	12
teleop	180	19
endgame	74	9
foul	0	0
total	296	40

Result

Final score

296 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 5.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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