Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.17 – 310.19

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.2 ±12.2

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 9.05Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 42.77Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 1.35Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.3 ±11.2

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 19.53Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 109.39Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 181.27Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3182, 10133, 9193

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3182, 10133, 9193

Auto

5.4 10%

Teleop

25.2 45%

Endgame

25.2 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5746, 177, 2067

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5746, 177, 2067

Auto

58.8 19%

Teleop

173.2 56%

Endgame

76.0 25%

Strengths

· 2067 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.2pts

Blue projected score310.2pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -257
Score range: 23–340
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 165.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.2Season APEX485.3

5.4Auto58.8

25.2Teleop173.2

25.2Endgame76

31Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	95
teleop	16	210
endgame	8	86
foul	5	0
total	50	391

Result

Final score

50 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 42 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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