Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.2 – 262.24

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.4 ±12.8

10266Hopkins Galvanized Goats

Season APEX 50Event APEX -14.06Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 58.69Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 60.57Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 471 ±9.8

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 24.44Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 160.77Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 77.03Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10266, 11464, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10266, 11464, 558

Auto

34.1 33%

Teleop

56.6 55%

Endgame

12.1 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 178, 7407, 155

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 178, 7407, 155

Auto

56.1 22%

Teleop

149.4 59%

Endgame

47.7 19%

Strengths

· 7407 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.2pts

Blue projected score262.2pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -157
Score range: 75–292
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 428 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.4Season APEX471

34.1Auto56.1

56.6Teleop149.4

12.1Endgame47.7

31Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	72
teleop	35	203
endgame	36	60
foul	0	0
total	93	335

Result

Final score

93 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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