Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.85 – 109.49

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

290 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.2 ±11.7

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 12.86Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 51.14Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 183.85Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.1 ±11.7

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 41.91Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 73.71Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX -6.13Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10245, 3461, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10245, 3461, 571

Auto

38.9 16%

Teleop

131.6 55%

Endgame

68.3 29%

Strengths

· 571 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11131, 228, 5856

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11131, 228, 5856

Auto

26.1 25%

Teleop

46.7 45%

Endgame

31.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score247.9pts

Blue projected score109.5pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.4
Score range: 80–277
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 163.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.2Season APEX267.1

38.9Auto26.1

131.6Teleop46.7

68.3Endgame31.5

12Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	12
teleop	176	41
endgame	86	42
foul	0	0
total	290	95

Result

Final score

290 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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