Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.06 – 225.95

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 47 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225 ±12.2

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX -0.91Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 52.03Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 28.94Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.1 ±11.2

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 15.42Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 190.74Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 19.79Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5856, 126, 178

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5856, 126, 178

Auto

30.6 43%

Teleop

28.0 40%

Endgame

12.2 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2785, 2067, 3182

/ 100 compat

Projected

226 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2785, 2067, 3182

Auto

58.2 25%

Teleop

124.7 54%

Endgame

48.4 21%

Strengths

· 2067 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.1pts

Blue projected score226pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -145.9
Score range: 51–255
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 163.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225Season APEX388.1

30.6Auto58.2

28Teleop124.7

12.2Endgame48.4

68Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	27
teleop	27	109
endgame	12	10
foul	5	5
total	61	151

Result

Final score

61 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 47 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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