Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.79 – 104.24

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

180 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.3 ±11.7

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 83.83Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 42.86Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 55.1Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.5 ±12.8

7760Griffin Innovations

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 34.82Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10266Hopkins Galvanized Goats

Season APEX 50Event APEX -11.4Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 80.82Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3146, 11131, 11464

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3146, 11131, 11464

Auto

43.4 24%

Teleop

101.0 55%

Endgame

37.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7760, 10266, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7760, 10266, 228

Auto

24.5 25%

Teleop

51.2 52%

Endgame

23.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.8pts

Blue projected score104.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.6
Score range: 75–211
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 161.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.3Season APEX227.5

43.4Auto24.5

101Teleop51.2

37.6Endgame23.5

21Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	17
teleop	104	18
endgame	32	19
foul	15	0
total	180	54

Result

Final score

180 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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