Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.97 – 104.11

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.6 ±12.2

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 93.05Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 44.3Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 10.62Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.3 ±12.8

5142RoboDominators

Season APEX 80Event APEX 49.6Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 24.44Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

181Birds Of Prey

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 30.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 177, 10133, 10245

/ 100 compat

Projected

148 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 177, 10133, 10245

Auto

15.1 10%

Teleop

91.5 61%

Endgame

43.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5142, 2170, 181

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5142, 2170, 181

Auto

23.5 24%

Teleop

50.6 51%

Endgame

24.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148pts

Blue projected score104.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.9
Score range: 75–177
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 162.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.6Season APEX236.3

15.1Auto23.5

91.5Teleop50.6

43.7Endgame24.2

2Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	15
teleop	79	65
endgame	66	32
foul	15	5
total	182	117

Result

Final score

182 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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