Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.75 – 211.63

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.1 ±9.8

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 190.49Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 59.49Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 16.77Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.6 ±12.2

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 36.25Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 54.37Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 121.01Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2067, 228, 9710

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2067, 228, 9710

Auto

59.8 23%

Teleop

142.4 55%

Endgame

59.0 23%

Strengths

· 2067 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4628, 126, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4628, 126, 177

Auto

17.3 9%

Teleop

117.3 58%

Endgame

68.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score266.8pts

Blue projected score211.6pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.1
Score range: 179–300
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 184.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.1Season APEX335.6

59.8Auto17.3

142.4Teleop117.3

59Endgame68.5

11Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	25
teleop	180	104
endgame	57	65
foul	5	20
total	307	214

Result

Final score

307 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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