Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.34 – 51.32

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.3 ±11.7

3634Bridgeport Spark City

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX -9.61Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 163.86Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 42.09Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.3 ±12.8

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 16.18Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 35.2Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX -0.06Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3634, 236, 178

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3634, 236, 178

Auto

42.6 22%

Teleop

110.1 58%

Endgame

37.4 20%

Strengths

· 236 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9193, 1991, 5856

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9193, 1991, 5856

Auto

9.2 18%

Teleop

25.3 50%

Endgame

16.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.3pts

Blue projected score51.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145
Score range: 21–226
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 163.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.3Season APEX157.3

42.6Auto9.2

110.1Teleop25.3

37.4Endgame16.5

47Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	14
teleop	27	36
endgame	21	12
foul	0	0
total	83	62

Result

Final score

83 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 62 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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