Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.32 – 219.35

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.7 ±11.7

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 10.93Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 17.06Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 22.33Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.1 ±12.4

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 171.36Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 53.89Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -5.9Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10245, 9710, 2170

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10245, 9710, 2170

Auto

20.7 45%

Teleop

30.4 66%

Endgame

-5.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7407, 11464, 11409

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7407, 11464, 11409

Auto

48.6 23%

Teleop

117.7 55%

Endgame

49.0 23%

Strengths

· 7407 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.3pts

Blue projected score219.4pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169
Score range: 21–248
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 163.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.7Season APEX387.1

20.7Auto48.6

30.4Teleop117.7

-5Endgame49

23Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	64
teleop	11	107
endgame	9	12
foul	0	0
total	34	183

Result

Final score

34 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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