Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.52 – 153.91

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 49.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.2 ±13.3

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -13.57Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5142RoboDominators

Season APEX 80Event APEX 37.71Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 43.38Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.3 ±11

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 40.11Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 43.17Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 70.63Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3719, 5142, 126

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3719, 5142, 126

Auto

25.5 43%

Teleop

23.4 39%

Endgame

10.6 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3461, 178, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3461, 178, 558

Auto

30.8 21%

Teleop

86.8 58%

Endgame

31.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.5pts

Blue projected score153.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.4
Score range: 39–183
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 163.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.2Season APEX268.3

25.5Auto30.8

23.4Teleop86.8

10.6Endgame31.3

44Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	40
teleop	78	49
endgame	24	31
foul	5	15
total	148	135

Result

Final score

148 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 49.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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