Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.64 – 139.13

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.1 ±13.3

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 38.13Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX -1.34Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 12.85Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.6 ±12.2

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 30.07Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 34.33Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 74.73Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10133, 5856, 2785

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10133, 5856, 2785

Auto

14.3 27%

Teleop

24.6 47%

Endgame

14.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6346, 1991, 429

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6346, 1991, 429

Auto

37.6 27%

Teleop

61.2 44%

Endgame

39.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.6pts

Blue projected score139.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.5
Score range: 20–169
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 164.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.1Season APEX213.6

14.3Auto37.6

24.6Teleop61.2

14Endgame39

73Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	48
teleop	39	80
endgame	29	44
foul	0	0
total	90	172

Result

Final score

90 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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