Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.46 – 107.57

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.9 ±10.4

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 10.95Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 82.45Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 63.06Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.1 ±12.8

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 69.01Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 24.91Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 13.65Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3182, 228, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3182, 228, 8889

Auto

23.8 15%

Teleop

82.0 51%

Endgame

54.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 155, 9193, 5746

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 155, 9193, 5746

Auto

25.8 23%

Teleop

53.3 48%

Endgame

31.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.5pts

Blue projected score107.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.9
Score range: 78–186
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 165.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.9Season APEX197.1

23.8Auto25.8

82Teleop53.3

54.8Endgame31.9

26Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	38
teleop	73	22
endgame	51	8
foul	5	0
total	146	68

Result

Final score

146 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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