Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.16 – 249.82

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

186 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.9 ±12.8

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 1.49Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 133.73Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 21.94Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.4 ±9.8

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 39.58Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 40.64Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 169.6Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2785, 236, 5746

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2785, 236, 5746

Auto

41.2 26%

Teleop

82.6 52%

Endgame

34.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2170, 11131, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2170, 11131, 7407

Auto

52.6 21%

Teleop

133.1 54%

Endgame

60.0 24%

Strengths

· 7407 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.2pts

Blue projected score249.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.7
Score range: 124–283
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 184.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.9Season APEX479.4

41.2Auto52.6

82.6Teleop133.1

34.3Endgame60

43Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	61
teleop	94	142
endgame	68	42
foul	0	5
total	186	250

Result

Final score

186 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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