Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.09 – 251.51

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

379 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 65.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 539.8 ±9.8

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 163.15Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 35.81Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 80.13Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 482.8 ±11.2

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 182.78Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3634Bridgeport Spark City

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX -13Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 81.73Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 571, 11131, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 571, 11131, 177

Auto

51.7 18%

Teleop

171.4 61%

Endgame

57.5 20%

Strengths

· 571 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2067, 3634, 3146

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2067, 3634, 3146

Auto

60.0 24%

Teleop

147.1 58%

Endgame

45.3 18%

Strengths

· 2067 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score279.1pts

Blue projected score251.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.6
Score range: 223–308
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 662 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

539.8Season APEX482.8

51.7Auto60

171.4Teleop147.1

57.5Endgame45.3

56Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	71
teleop	205	171
endgame	130	36
foul	0	5
total	379	283

Result

Final score

379 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 65.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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