Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

274.86 – 119.19

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.6 ±10.5

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 70.46Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 170.78Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 33.62Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.7 ±11.7

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 84.76Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3719STEM Whalers

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX -4.45Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 38.88Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 558, 7407, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 558, 7407, 10133

Auto

47.5 18%

Teleop

152.7 57%

Endgame

66.6 25%

Strengths

· 7407 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 228, 3719, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 228, 3719, 1991

Auto

23.4 20%

Teleop

73.1 63%

Endgame

20.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score274.9pts

Blue projected score119.2pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 155.7
Score range: 90–304
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 162.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.6Season APEX238.7

47.5Auto23.4

152.7Teleop73.1

66.6Endgame20.2

39Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	15
teleop	185	43
endgame	73	32
foul	0	5
total	292	95

Result

Final score

292 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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