Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.63 – 13.5

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.1 ±12.2

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 30.02Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 58.69Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 21.92Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.8 ±12.8

3634Bridgeport Spark City

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX -16.16Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10266Hopkins Galvanized Goats

Season APEX 50Event APEX -5.46Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11131Brainstorm

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 35.12Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9193, 126, 2170

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9193, 126, 2170

Auto

22.3 20%

Teleop

61.3 55%

Endgame

27.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3634, 10266, 11131

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3634, 10266, 11131

Auto

23.4 100%

Teleop

6.0 44%

Endgame

-15.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.6pts

Blue projected score13.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.1
Score range: -16–141
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 166.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.1Season APEX258.8

22.3Auto23.4

61.3Teleop6

27Endgame-15.8

14Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	11
teleop	46	14
endgame	21	6
foul	0	0
total	84	31

Result

Final score

84 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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