Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

267.09 – 183.58

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456.1 ±11.2

181Birds Of Prey

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 23.25Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 161.92Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 81.92Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306 ±11.7

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 73.67Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 50.37Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 59.54Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 181, 571, 3146

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 181, 571, 3146

Auto

49.3 18%

Teleop

161.3 60%

Endgame

56.8 21%

Strengths

· 571 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 175, 4628, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 175, 4628, 8889

Auto

17.2 10%

Teleop

83.1 47%

Endgame

75.7 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score267.1pts

Blue projected score183.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.5
Score range: 154–297
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 164.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456.1Season APEX306

49.3Auto17.2

161.3Teleop83.1

56.8Endgame75.7

78Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	28
teleop	151	90
endgame	60	44
foul	0	0
total	258	162

Result

Final score

258 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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