Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.51 – 135.59

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.2 ±12.7

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -5.16Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 83.24Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 55.43Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.2 ±11.7

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 47.71Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2785Prometheus

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 16.41Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 71.47Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11409, 429, 3461

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11409, 429, 3461

Auto

24.9 19%

Teleop

59.9 45%

Endgame

48.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 178, 2785, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 178, 2785, 177

Auto

23.8 18%

Teleop

92.4 68%

Endgame

18.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.5pts

Blue projected score135.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.1
Score range: 104–166
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 166.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.2Season APEX323.2

24.9Auto23.8

59.9Teleop92.4

48.4Endgame18.8

21Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	32
teleop	13	106
endgame	20	9
foul	15	0
total	81	147

Result

Final score

81 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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