Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.5 – 130.28

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

290 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 0.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 418.6 ±9.8

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 41.25Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 177.29Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

558Elm City Robo Squad

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 71.96Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.3 ±12.8

1699Robocats

Season APEX 194.3Event APEX 119.71Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 7.23Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10245WAMS

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 3.34Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1991, 2067, 558

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1991, 2067, 558

Auto

65.0 23%

Teleop

154.1 53%

Endgame

69.4 24%

Strengths

· 2067 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1699, 5746, 10245

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1699, 5746, 10245

Auto

15.4 11%

Teleop

79.6 59%

Endgame

40.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score290.5pts

Blue projected score130.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.2
Score range: 100–321
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 164.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

418.6Season APEX312.3

65Auto15.4

154.1Teleop79.6

69.4Endgame40.3

111Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	26
teleop	170	65
endgame	53	30
foul	0	10
total	290	131

Result

Final score

290 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 0.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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