Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.02 – 261.73

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 72.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.6 ±11.7

5856Bullbots

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 13.58Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 82.27Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 31.17Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.7 ±11.7

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 77.98Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 173.55Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10266Hopkins Galvanized Goats

Season APEX 50Event APEX 10.2Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5856, 155, 2170

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5856, 155, 2170

Auto

41.4 32%

Teleop

75.4 59%

Endgame

11.9 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 126, 571, 10266

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 126, 571, 10266

Auto

53.8 21%

Teleop

144.1 55%

Endgame

61.9 24%

Strengths

· 571 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127pts

Blue projected score261.7pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.7
Score range: 96–293
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 170.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.6Season APEX398.7

41.4Auto53.8

75.4Teleop144.1

11.9Endgame61.9

61Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	51
teleop	24	92
endgame	18	20
foul	5	0
total	80	163

Result

Final score

80 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 72.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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