Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.04 – 154.79

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255 ±12.8

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 32.52Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 54.25Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 82.27Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.9 ±12.2

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 68.05Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 42.1Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11464Lancer Nation Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 44.64Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9193, 4628, 3146

/ 100 compat

Projected

169 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9193, 4628, 3146

Auto

14.9 10%

Teleop

105.3 68%

Endgame

35.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 429, 178, 11464

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 429, 178, 11464

Auto

34.9 22%

Teleop

83.2 54%

Endgame

37.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169pts

Blue projected score154.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.3
Score range: 124–200
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 170.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255Season APEX242.9

14.9Auto34.9

105.3Teleop83.2

35.4Endgame37.2

49Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	60
teleop	77	92
endgame	46	48
foul	0	15
total	138	215

Result

Final score

138 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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